Newcastle 1-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Bournemouth travel to St. James' Park to take on Newcastle. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Newcastle have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Newcastle have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Newcastle's home record at St. James' Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. James' Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Newcastle are significantly better at St. James' Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Bournemouth have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Newcastle 1.30 PPG, Bournemouth 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Newcastle's 30% rate and Bournemouth's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Newcastle in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 54% versus Bournemouth 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 46% | Bournemouth 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 2.74 xG and Bournemouth 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 0.963 / defence 0.876 | Bournemouth attack 0.852 / defence 1.740. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.204. Bournemouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.740 — this is suppressing Newcastle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Newcastle games / 6 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 75% | Draw 16% | Bournemouth 9%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | Bournemouth 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 56% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Newcastle 30% | Bournemouth 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 75% | Draw 16% | Bournemouth 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 56% | xG Newcastle 2.74 / Bournemouth 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 0.963 / def 0.876 | Bournemouth attack 0.852 / def 1.740 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.74
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Bournemouth xG
56%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Bournemouth kick off?
Newcastle vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Newcastle 1 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Newcastle vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Bournemouth part of?
Newcastle vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 75% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Newcastle and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Newcastle and Bournemouth in?
Newcastle (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (0.96) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.74), the model arrives at 2.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.34
9%
11.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.74
Newcastle xG
Total xG
3.64
0.90
Bournemouth xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.34
16%
Draw
11.14
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
6%
15.53
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
1%
172.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.74 expected goals for Newcastle and 0.90 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Newcastle's recent record stands at 14W 14D 16L from 44 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Newcastle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 11L across 44 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bournemouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bournemouth by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Newcastle heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Newcastle have managed 9W 8D 5L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 10W 5D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Newcastle are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.48 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Early Season
Bournemouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 14W 14D 16L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 22W 11D 11L in their last 44 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Bournemouth away?
Newcastle's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.59 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Newcastle and Bournemouth runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when Bournemouth won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newcastle's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Newcastle
5
Draws
3
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 0, Bournemouth have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 54%, Bournemouth 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Newcastle) and 50% (Bournemouth).
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bournemouth in 46%; Bournemouth in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Newcastle's recent matches and 36% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newcastle vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Newcastle's recent games and 50% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Newcastle and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle and Bournemouth finished level at 1-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 2.74 xG and Bournemouth 0.90 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Newcastle fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Bournemouth attack 0.85 / defence 1.74, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 75% | Draw 16% | Bournemouth 9%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 46%, Bournemouth 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.