Draw No Bet Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest draw no bet probability — Saturday 14 May 2022
Draw No Bet backs a side to win, with the stake returned if the match is drawn. Our prediction model takes the side's win probability as a share of all decisive results, ignoring the draw. Only selections at 70%+ probability are shown.
The model shortlists 20 fixtures on Saturday 14 May 2022. FC Porto vs Estoril (FC Porto (draw no bet)) sits top on 92% in the Primeira Liga. The shortlist runs from 92% down to 72%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
Primeira Liga supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.
Of the 16 fixtures on this list that have since finished, eleven landed the draw no bet market — 69%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Primeira Liga · Portugal
FC Porto (draw no bet)
92%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Mjallby AIF (draw no bet)
89%
Primera División · Chile
Colo Colo (draw no bet)
88%
Bundesliga · Germany
Borussia Dortmund (draw no bet)
82%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Raków Częstochowa (draw no bet)
80%
Ligue 1 · France
Strasbourg (draw no bet)
79%
Bundesliga · Germany
FSV Mainz 05 (draw no bet)
78%
Bundesliga · Germany
RB Leipzig (draw no bet)
78%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Sporting CP (draw no bet)
78%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Maritimo (draw no bet)
77%
Serie A · Brazil
Atletico-MG (draw no bet)
77%
Bundesliga · Germany
FC Augsburg (draw no bet)
76%
Serie A · Italy
AS Roma (draw no bet)
75%
Superettan · Sweden
Osters IF (draw no bet)
75%
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Charleroi (draw no bet)
74%
Super League 1 · Greece
Panathinaikos (draw no bet)
74%
Ligue 1 · France
Monaco (draw no bet)
74%
Serie A · Italy
Udinese (draw no bet)
73%
Superettan · Sweden
Utsikten (draw no bet)
73%
Süper Lig · Turkey
Kayserispor (draw no bet)
72%
Showing top 20 fixtures by draw no bet probability (a 70% or higher draw no bet probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsDraw No Bet — common questions
What does the Draw No Bet market mean?
Draw No Bet settles on whether a match is won by the selected side, with the stake returned if it ends level. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate draw no bet probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The draw no bet probability shown here is the selected side's win probability divided by the chance the match has a winner at all, since a draw returns the stake. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Draw No Bet on Saturday 14 May 2022?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by FC Porto vs Estoril (FC Porto (draw no bet)) at 92% draw no bet probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 70% or higher draw no bet probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these draw no bet predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.