České Budějovice 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Teplice at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Teplice encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

České Budějovice (all games): 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

České Budějovice's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Teplice's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Teplice have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Teplice are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for České Budějovice, 4 for Teplice and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended České Budějovice 2–5 Teplice — a Teplice win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 48% versus Teplice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 61% | Teplice 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.05 xG and Teplice 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.749 / defence 1.525 | Teplice attack 0.806 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.218. České Budějovice's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.525 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 58 games and Teplice's last 58.

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 26% | Draw 28% | Teplice 47%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.90 | Draw 3.59 | Teplice 2.15. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 20% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights