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Poisson rates Plzen at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Plzen to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Plzen — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Plzen have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bohemians 1905, 4 for Plzen and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Plzen trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 52% versus Plzen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Plzen 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG and Plzen 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.827 / defence 1.060 | Plzen attack 1.254 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.193. Plzen's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Bohemians 1905 games / 58 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 20% | Draw 27% | Plzen 53%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Plzen 1.89. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 50% | Plzen 40% BTTS from recent games.

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