Bohemians 1905 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Plzen to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Plzen — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Plzen have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bohemians 1905, 4 for Plzen and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Plzen trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 52% versus Plzen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Plzen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG and Plzen 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.827 / defence 1.060 | Plzen attack 1.254 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.193. Plzen's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Bohemians 1905 games / 58 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 20% | Draw 27% | Plzen 53%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Plzen 1.89. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 50% | Plzen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 20% | Draw 27% | Plzen 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Bohemians 1905 0.88 / Plzen 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.827 / def 1.060 | Plzen attack 1.254 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Plzen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Plzen xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 20% chance of winning, Plzen a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Record (7 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 1 | Plzen 4W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Plzen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.83x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
20%
5.02
27%
3.68
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.47
1.59
Plzen xG
5.02
20%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
4%
24.49
22%
4.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.59 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 63 games, going 17W 22D 24L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 2.05 PPG from 63 outings (39W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 8W 12D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 1.87 points per game from 31 outings (17W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.05 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 22D 24L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while Plzen have gone 39W 12D 12L in their last 63 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.16 PPG; Plzen away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Plzen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 48%, Plzen 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bohemians 1905) and 55% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 42% of games; Plzen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 55% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 55% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Plzen tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Plzen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG and Plzen 1.59 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against Plzen attack 1.25 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 20% | Draw 27% | Plzen 53%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Plzen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.