Slovan Liberec 0-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Stadion u Nisy to take on Slovan Liberec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's home record at Stadion u Nisy: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Slovan Liberec) versus 1.00 (Baník Ostrava). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Slovan Liberec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Baník Ostrava in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Slovan Liberec, 1 for Baník Ostrava and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 48% versus Baník Ostrava 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 40% | Baník Ostrava 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.29 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.971 / defence 1.033 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.988 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.344. Data: 40 Slovan Liberec games / 40 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 32% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 36%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Baník Ostrava 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 60% | Baník Ostrava 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 32% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.29 / Baník Ostrava 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.971 / def 1.033 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.988 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Baník Ostrava xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 32% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava?
Record (2 meetings): Slovan Liberec 0W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 1W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
32%
3.08
31%
3.22
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.66
1.37
Baník Ostrava xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.37 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 9D 19L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.40 PPG from 42 outings (15W 14D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.21 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 8W 3D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.30 points per game from 20 outings (6W 8D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 69%.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 9D 19L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 15W 14D 13L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.35 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Slovan Liberec have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
4
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Slovan Liberec 1-0 Baník Ostrava.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 40%, Baník Ostrava 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Slovan Liberec) and 55% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 65% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 55% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovan Liberec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava finished level at 0-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.29 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.37 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Baník Ostrava landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.99 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 32% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 36%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 40%, Baník Ostrava 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.21 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.