Zlin 1-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zlin face Slovan Liberec.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zlin host Slovan Liberec at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 12 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zlin have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Zlin have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Zlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Slovan Liberec have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Zlin) versus 1.60 (Slovan Liberec). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Zlin's games and 60% of Slovan Liberec's (from Zlin's last 10 home games and Slovan Liberec's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Zlin have won 3, Slovan Liberec 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Apr 2023, ended Zlin 1–2 Slovan Liberec — a Slovan Liberec win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 65% and Slovan Liberec 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 65% | Slovan Liberec 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.57 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.942 / defence 1.006 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.073 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.168. Data: built from Zlin's last 33 games and Slovan Liberec's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Zlin 44% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 30%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.28 | Draw 3.82 | Slovan Liberec 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zlin's last 10 home games and Slovan Liberec's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zlin 70% (last 10 home games) | Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Zlin 33 games, Slovan Liberec 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 44% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Zlin 1.57 / Slovan Liberec 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.942 / def 1.006 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.073 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Zlin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zlin vs Slovan Liberec FAQs
What time does Zlin vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Zlin vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Zlin 1 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Zlin vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Zlin vs Slovan Liberec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 44% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Zlin and Slovan Liberec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zlin vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.94x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zlin's last 33 games and Slovan Liberec's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.82
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.83
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
6%
16.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zlin vs Slovan Liberec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Zlin and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Zlin and 1.26 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin's recent record stands at 8W 13D 16L from 37 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 15L across 37 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.00 PPG, Slovan Liberec on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 7W 4D 7L from their last 18 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 6W 4D 8L across their last 18 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.51 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Slovan Liberec in 62%.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
Zlin (Home) vs Slovan Liberec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zlin
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
❓ Zlin vs Slovan Liberec Form FAQs
What form are Zlin and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 8W 13D 16L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 13W 9D 15L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Zlin's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.39 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Slovan Liberec have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Zlin's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Zlin
1
Draws
4
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Zlin vs Slovan Liberec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovan Liberec?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Zlin have won 4, Slovan Liberec have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zlin and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Zlin 0-1 Slovan Liberec.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 67%, Slovan Liberec 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zlin and 72% for Slovan Liberec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zlin vs Slovan Liberec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zlin and Slovan Liberec matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zlin's games and 61% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zlin and Slovan Liberec matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zlin's matches and 72% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Zlin and Slovan Liberec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Zlin's recent matches and 78% of Slovan Liberec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin and Slovan Liberec finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.57 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 44% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 30%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 65%, Slovan Liberec 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.00 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.