České Budějovice 2-5 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Plzen — this České Budějovice vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
České Budějovice welcome Plzen to Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 13 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
České Budějovice's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plzen stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plzen away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (České Budějovice) versus 0.90 (Plzen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of České Budějovice's games and 60% of Plzen's (from České Budějovice's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for České Budějovice.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2023, ended České Budějovice 1–2 Plzen — a Plzen win.
Plzen have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plzen in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 54% versus Plzen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 66% | Plzen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.55 xG and Plzen 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.010 / defence 1.196 | Plzen attack 0.880 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.206. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 33 games and Plzen's last 33.
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 44% | Draw 25% | Plzen 31%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.28 | Draw 4.01 | Plzen 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on České Budějovice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (České Budějovice's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 60% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 44% | Draw 25% | Plzen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG České Budějovice 1.55 / Plzen 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.010 / def 1.196 | Plzen attack 0.880 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Plzen xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ České Budějovice vs Plzen FAQs
What time does České Budějovice vs Plzen kick off?
České Budějovice vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Plzen?
České Budějovice 2 - 5 Plzen.
Where is České Budějovice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Plzen part of?
České Budějovice vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 44% chance of winning, Plzen a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both České Budějovice and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will České Budějovice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (1.01) and Plzen's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from České Budějovice's last 33 games and Plzen's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.01
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.81
1.27
Plzen xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ České Budějovice vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.27 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 11W 5D 19L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 17W 7D 11L from 35 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Venue Form
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 16 home games (7W 2D 7L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 7W 3D 6L from their last 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.66 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
České Budějovice (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
České Budějovice
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ České Budějovice vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are České Budějovice and Plzen in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 11W 5D 19L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Plzen have gone 17W 7D 11L in their last 35 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.44 PPG; Plzen away: 1.50 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Plzen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 15 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Plzen have taken the most recent 8 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Dec 2023, when Plzen won Plzen 5-0 České Budějovice.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
0
Draws
8
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ České Budějovice vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Plzen?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, České Budějovice have won 0, Plzen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 December 2024: Plzen 7-2 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 50%, Plzen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (České Budějovice) and 50% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 38%; České Budějovice have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ České Budějovice vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in České Budějovice and Plzen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 50% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are České Budějovice and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of České Budějovice's matches and 50% of Plzen's.
Do České Budějovice and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 75% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 2-5 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat České Budějovice 2-5 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.55 xG and Plzen 1.27 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.27 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against Plzen attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 44% | Draw 25% | Plzen 31%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 66%, Plzen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.