Bohemians 1905 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Slovácko at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Ďolíček.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.30 PPG versus Slovácko's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Slovácko 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Slovácko trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 55% versus Slovácko 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 55% | Slovácko 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.46 xG and Slovácko 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.024 / defence 1.066 | Slovácko attack 0.869 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.224. Data: 33 Bohemians 1905 games / 33 Slovácko games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Slovácko 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 1905 40% | Slovácko 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.46 / Slovácko 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.024 / def 1.066 | Slovácko attack 0.869 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Slovácko xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 43% chance of winning, Slovácko a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Record (4 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (1.02) and Slovácko's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.48
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.59
1.13
Slovácko xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.13 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 17W 7D 14L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko's form line: 14W 12D 12L from 38 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.53 PPG, Slovácko on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 5W 6D 7L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.16 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 7D 14L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovácko away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.28 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Slovácko in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Slovácko have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Slovácko 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 61%, Slovácko 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 56% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Bohemians 1905's games and 50% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 56% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovácko defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1905 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Bohemians 1905 0-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.46 xG and Slovácko 1.13 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Slovácko attack 0.87 / defence 0.84, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 28%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 55%, Slovácko 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovácko's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.53 PPG, Slovácko 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.