FK Jablonec 1-5 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Sparta Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FK Jablonec, 1 for Sparta Praha and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with Sparta Praha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 60% versus Sparta Praha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 60% | Sparta Praha 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.25 xG and Sparta Praha 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.003 / defence 1.011 | Sparta Praha attack 1.195 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.142. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 FK Jablonec games / 33 Sparta Praha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 32% | Draw 29% | Sparta Praha 39%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Sparta Praha 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Sparta Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 32% | Draw 29% | Sparta Praha 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG FK Jablonec 1.25 / Sparta Praha 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.003 / def 1.011 | Sparta Praha attack 1.195 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sparta Praha xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
FK Jablonec 1 - 5 Sparta Praha.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha part of?
FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 32% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
Record (2 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.20x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
32%
3.09
29%
3.44
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.62
1.38
Sparta Praha xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
8%
12.27
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.38 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, FK Jablonec have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 12D 16L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha's form line: 26W 9D 3L from 38 games, 2.29 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FK Jablonec.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FK Jablonec have posted 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (6W 7D 5L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 12W 5D 1L from 18 away games — 2.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.21 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 10W 12D 16L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 26W 9D 3L in their last 38 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.39 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.28 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-5 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 61%, Sparta Praha 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FK Jablonec) and 44% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 44% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 44% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 1-5 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat FK Jablonec 1-5 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.25 xG and Sparta Praha 1.38 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.38 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Sparta Praha attack 1.20 / defence 0.73, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 32% | Draw 29% | Sparta Praha 39%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 60%, Sparta Praha 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.