Zlin 2-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zlin face Dukla Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Letna plays host to Zlin versus Dukla Praha in Czech Liga (Relegation Group - 1). Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Zlin have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Zlin at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Dukla Praha's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Dukla Praha's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Zlin, 0.90 for Dukla Praha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Feb 2026, ended Zlin 0–0 Dukla Praha — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Zlin half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dukla Praha half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 53% versus Dukla Praha 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 57% | Dukla Praha 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.40 xG and Dukla Praha 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.050 / defence 1.377 | Dukla Praha attack 0.794 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Zlin's defence rating of 1.377 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dukla Praha's projected output up. Data: built from Zlin's last 30 games and Dukla Praha's last 60.
Result probabilities: Zlin 38% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 34%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.62 | Draw 3.60 | Dukla Praha 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Zlin 50% (last 10 home games) | Dukla Praha 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 1 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 38% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Zlin 1.40 / Dukla Praha 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.050 / def 1.377 | Dukla Praha attack 0.794 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Zlin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Dukla Praha xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zlin vs Dukla Praha FAQs
What time does Zlin vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Zlin vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Zlin 2 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Zlin vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Dukla Praha part of?
Zlin vs Dukla Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (Relegation Group - 1) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 38% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Zlin and Dukla Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zlin vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zlin's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Dukla Praha's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Dukla Praha's attack (0.79x) against Zlin's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Zlin's last 30 games and Dukla Praha's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.60
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.72
1.31
Dukla Praha xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zlin vs Dukla Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Zlin and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Zlin and 1.31 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zlin's recent record stands at 9W 7D 14L from 30 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 4W 11D 15L across 30 games — 0.77 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Zlin against 0.77 for Dukla Praha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 5W 4D 6L from their last 15 home games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 1W 6D 8L across their last 15 away games, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.67 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Dukla Praha
Current Season
Zlin (Home) vs Dukla Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zlin
Current Season
Dukla Praha
Current Season
❓ Zlin vs Dukla Praha Form FAQs
What form are Zlin and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 4W 11D 15L in their last 30 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Dukla Praha away?
Zlin's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.27 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Zlin
2
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Zlin vs Dukla Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Dukla Praha?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Zlin have won 1, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Dukla Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Zlin 2-1 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Dukla Praha?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 60%, Dukla Praha 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Zlin) and 27% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zlin vs Dukla Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zlin and Dukla Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Zlin's recent matches and 40% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zlin and Dukla Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Zlin's recent games and 27% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Dukla Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Zlin's recent matches and 73% of Dukla Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Dukla Praha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Dukla Praha 2-1 at Stadion Letna, Relegation Group - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.40 xG and Dukla Praha 1.31 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.05 / defence 1.38 against Dukla Praha attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 38% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 34%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 57%, Dukla Praha 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.13 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.