Dukla Praha 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Juliska plays host to Dukla Praha versus Slovácko in Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dukla Praha have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dukla Praha's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Juliska this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slovácko's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Dukla Praha, 0.80 for Slovácko — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dukla Praha lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Dukla Praha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dukla Praha half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 48% versus Slovácko 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 39% | Slovácko 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.15 xG and Slovácko 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.709 / defence 1.095 | Slovácko attack 0.886 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Dukla Praha games / 60 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 35%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Slovácko 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 30% | Slovácko 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 2 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Dukla Praha 1.15 / Slovácko 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.709 / def 1.095 | Slovácko attack 0.886 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Slovácko xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Slovácko kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Slovácko kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Slovácko?
Dukla Praha 0 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Slovácko part of?
Dukla Praha vs Slovácko is a Relegation Group - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 35% chance of winning, Slovácko a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dukla Praha and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Slovácko?
Record (5 meetings): Dukla Praha 2W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 2W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Slovácko in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dukla Praha's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (0.89x) against Dukla Praha's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.29
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.32
1.17
Slovácko xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.17 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Dukla Praha have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 11W 23D 32L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Slovácko's form line: 14W 20D 32L from 66 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Dukla Praha against 0.94 for Slovácko. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dukla Praha have posted 1.00 PPG from 31 outings (7W 10D 14L).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 9D 19L from 31 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dukla Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 0.88 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 11W 23D 32L in their last 66 games (0.85 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 14W 20D 32L in their last 66 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Slovácko away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.00 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Slovácko?
From 6 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 2, Slovácko have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 52%, Slovácko 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Dukla Praha) and 45% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 32% of games; Slovácko in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 45% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 45% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Slovácko tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Dukla Praha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Dukla Praha 0-1 at Stadion Juliska, Relegation Group - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.15 xG and Slovácko 1.17 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dukla Praha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Slovácko attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 35% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 35%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Slovácko win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 39%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (66 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (66 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.85 PPG, Slovácko 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.