Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Bohemians 1905 travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Letna, Zlin have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zlin 1.00 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bohemians 1905, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Zlin.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bohemians 1905 have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 53% versus Bohemians 1905 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 56% | Bohemians 1905 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.41 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.896 / defence 1.054 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.907 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.331. Data: 32 Zlin games / 32 Bohemians 1905 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Zlin 40% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 33%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 1905 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 40% | Bohemians 1905 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 40% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Zlin 1.41 / Bohemians 1905 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.896 / def 1.054 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.907 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Zlin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Zlin 0 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 40% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Zlin and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Record (9 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1905 6W.
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.90x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.73
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.69
1.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Zlin and 1.27 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin come into this having played 34 games, going 9W 7D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.18 PPG from 34 outings (11W 7D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.00 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zlin's home form reads 6W 3D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.88 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 7D 18L in their last 34 games (1.00 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 11W 7D 16L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Zlin's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.24 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Bohemians 1905 won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
2
Draws
7
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Bohemians 1905 have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Zlin 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 53%, Bohemians 1905 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Zlin) and 47% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Zlin's recent matches and 47% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Zlin's matches and 47% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Zlin and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Zlin 0-2 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.41 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.27 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Zlin fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 40% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 33%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 56%, Bohemians 1905 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.00 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.