Hradec Králové 2-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
FINEP Arena plays host to Hradec Králové versus Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 9 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at FINEP Arena, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at FINEP Arena.
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Hradec Králové, 5 for Baník Ostrava and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Baník Ostrava 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Baník Ostrava 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.46 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.071 / defence 0.851 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.866 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.410. Data: 32 Hradec Králové games / 32 Baník Ostrava games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 26%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Baník Ostrava 3.85. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 40% | Baník Ostrava 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Hradec Králové 1.46 / Baník Ostrava 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.071 / def 0.851 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.866 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Baník Ostrava xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at FINEP Arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Hradec Králové 2 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 46% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava?
Record (9 meetings): Hradec Králové 3W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 5W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (1.07) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (0.87x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.63
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.50
1.04
Baník Ostrava xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
6%
16.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.04 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hradec Králové come into this having played 37 games, going 17W 9D 11L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.00 PPG from 37 outings (10W 7D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hradec Králové's home form reads 11W 4D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 0.89 points per game from 18 outings (4W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.08 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 17W 9D 11L in their last 37 games (1.62 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 10W 7D 20L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.06 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Hradec Králové go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 44%, Baník Ostrava 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hradec Králové) and 39% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 39% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 39% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Baník Ostrava 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Baník Ostrava 2-1 at FINEP Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.46 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.04 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 46% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 26%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 49%, Baník Ostrava 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.