Slavia Praha 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Fortuna Arena to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha at Fortuna Arena this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.20 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Slavia Praha, who have won 9 of the last 9 meetings against Bohemians 1905 — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Slavia Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slavia Praha and goals. The home side's 9 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 63% versus Bohemians 1905 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 63% | Bohemians 1905 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.93 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.382 / defence 0.871 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.945 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.340. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.382 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Slavia Praha games / 33 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 56% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 1905 21%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Bohemians 1905 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 60% | Bohemians 1905 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 56% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 1905 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Slavia Praha 1.93 / Bohemians 1905 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.382 / def 0.871 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.945 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Bohemians 1905 xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Slavia Praha 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 56% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Record (9 meetings): Slavia Praha 9W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.94x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.40
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.03
1.10
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
3%
32.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.10 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.37 PPG on a 25W 8D 2L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 12W 7D 16L from 35 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.78 PPG from 18 outings (16W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.37 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 7W 3D 8L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.91 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slavia Praha have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 25W 8D 2L in their last 35 games (2.37 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 7D 16L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.78 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
0
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 9, Bohemians 1905 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 50%, Bohemians 1905 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Slavia Praha) and 44% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 44% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Slavia Praha's matches and 44% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.93 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.10 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.38 / defence 0.87 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 56% | Draw 23% | Bohemians 1905 21%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 63%, Bohemians 1905 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.