Teplice 5-5 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Plzen travel to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to take on Teplice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's home record at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 1.90 PPG versus Plzen's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 9 encounters against Teplice's 1 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Plzen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Plzen in-play and half-time data (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Plzen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 43% | Plzen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.32 xG and Plzen 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.071 / defence 0.939 | Plzen attack 0.992 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.331. Data: 32 Teplice games / 32 Plzen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 28% | Plzen 34%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Plzen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 40% | Plzen 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 28% | Plzen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Teplice 1.32 / Plzen 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.071 / def 0.939 | Plzen attack 0.992 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Teplice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Plzen xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Plzen kick off?
Teplice vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Teplice 5 - 5 Plzen.
Where is Teplice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Plzen part of?
Teplice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 38% chance of winning, Plzen a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Teplice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
Record (9 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 4 | Plzen 4W.
What form are Teplice and Plzen in?
Teplice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Plzen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 1.07x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.62
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.56
1.24
Plzen xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Teplice and 1.24 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 12W 12D 13L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen's form line: 18W 10D 9L from 37 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 8W 4D 5L from 17 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.68 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Plzen in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 12W 12D 13L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while Plzen have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.29 PPG; Plzen away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Teplice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Plzen in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Plzen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Teplice
5
Draws
4
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 1, Plzen have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Teplice 5-5 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 47%, Plzen 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Teplice) and 59% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Plzen in 41%; Teplice have failed to score in 29% of games; Plzen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Teplice's recent matches and 35% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Teplice's recent games and 59% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Plzen tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Plzen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Plzen share the spoils in a 5-5 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 3, as Teplice and Plzen drew 5-5 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.32 xG and Plzen 1.24 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 5-5 for 10 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen outscored their 1.24 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Plzen attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 38% | Draw 28% | Plzen 34%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 43%, Plzen 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Plzen's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.