Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zbrojovka Brno face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Slovácko travel to face Zbrojovka Brno in Czech Liga (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Zbrojovka Brno have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Zbrojovka Brno's home record over their last 8 home games: 4W 1D 3L (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slovácko (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Zbrojovka Brno against 0.90 for Slovácko. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Zbrojovka Brno, 1 for Slovácko and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2026, ended Zbrojovka Brno 2–1 Slovácko — a Zbrojovka Brno win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Zbrojovka Brno half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zbrojovka Brno 50% versus Slovácko 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zbrojovka Brno 57% | Slovácko 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.47 xG and Slovácko 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.917 / defence 1.250 | Slovácko attack 0.911 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.292. Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slovácko's projected output up. Data: built from Zbrojovka Brno's last 14 games and Slovácko's last 44.
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 35% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 35%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.83 | Draw 3.42 | Slovácko 2.83. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 29%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Zbrojovka Brno 35% and Slovácko 35%, with the draw at 29%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zbrojovka Brno's last 8 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zbrojovka Brno 62% (last 8 home games) | Slovácko 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 35% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.47 / Slovácko 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.917 / def 1.250 | Slovácko attack 0.911 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Zbrojovka Brno and Slovácko level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Slovácko xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 35% chance of winning, Slovácko a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zbrojovka Brno's attack rating (0.92) and Slovácko's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (0.91x) against Zbrojovka Brno's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Zbrojovka Brno's last 14 games and Slovácko's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
35%
2.83
29%
3.42
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
2.94
1.47
Slovácko xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.47 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 14 games, going 6W 2D 6L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 0.71 PPG from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Zbrojovka Brno carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Slovácko — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Zbrojovka Brno's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across their last 8 home games, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 8 away games (2W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 0.93 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovácko in 64%.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 6W 2D 6L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Slovácko away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 1.62 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Slovácko, the earliest from July 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Zbrojovka Brno
1
Draws
1
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Slovácko?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, Slovácko have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Slovácko 1-2 Zbrojovka Brno.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zbrojovka Brno 62%, Slovácko 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Zbrojovka Brno) and 38% (Slovácko).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zbrojovka Brno vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zbrojovka Brno and Slovácko matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 50% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zbrojovka Brno and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent games and 38% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent matches and 62% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.