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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Slavia Praha.

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Full Analysis

AGC Arena Na Stinadlech plays host to Teplice versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 5 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Teplice (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's home record at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.

Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 0.70 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Slavia Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Slavia Praha winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Slavia Praha 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 46% | Slavia Praha 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.03 xG and Slavia Praha 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.884 / defence 0.902 | Slavia Praha attack 1.239 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.302. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.239 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Teplice games / 47 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 26% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 46%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Slavia Praha 2.17. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Slavia Praha 60%.

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