Teplice 1-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech plays host to Teplice versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 1.80 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Slavia Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 0–6 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Slavia Praha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 65% | Slavia Praha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.18 xG and Slavia Praha 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.948 / defence 1.286 | Slavia Praha attack 1.201 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.443. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 2.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Teplice games / 49 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 18% | Draw 21% | Slavia Praha 60%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 5.56 | Draw 4.76 | Slavia Praha 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 2.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 60% | Slavia Praha 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 18% | Draw 21% | Slavia Praha 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Teplice 1.18 / Slavia Praha 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.948 / def 1.286 | Slavia Praha attack 1.201 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Slavia Praha xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Teplice 1 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slavia Praha part of?
Teplice vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 18% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 60% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Teplice and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 3W.
What form are Teplice and Slavia Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.20x) against Teplice's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.23.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
18%
5.44
21%
4.72
60%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.40
2.23
Slavia Praha xG
5.44
18%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
1.65
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
11%
9.28
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
2%
50.47
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Teplice and 2.23 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slavia Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 14W 10D 30L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha's form line: 39W 7D 8L from 54 games, 2.30 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.34 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (9W 5D 12L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 14W 6D 6L from 26 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.59 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 14W 10D 30L in their last 54 games (0.96 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 39W 7D 8L in their last 54 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.23 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 5 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Teplice
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2025, when Teplice 1-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 46%, Slavia Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Teplice) and 54% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 31%; Teplice have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Teplice's recent matches and 50% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Teplice's matches and 54% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Teplice and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Slavia Praha finished level at 1-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.18 xG and Slavia Praha 2.23 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slavia Praha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.95 / defence 1.29 against Slavia Praha attack 1.20 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 18% | Draw 21% | Slavia Praha 60%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 65%, Slavia Praha 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.