Hradec Králové 0-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Lokotrans Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 1.10 (Mlada Boleslav). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 55% versus Mlada Boleslav 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 55% | Mlada Boleslav 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.41 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.822 / defence 1.002 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.988 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.454. Data: 49 Hradec Králové games / 49 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 35% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 37%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Mlada Boleslav 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 35% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Hradec Králové 1.41 / Mlada Boleslav 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.822 / def 1.002 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.988 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Mlada Boleslav xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Hradec Králové 0 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 35% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
35%
2.85
28%
3.51
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.84
1.44
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.44 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 18W 16D 19L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 20W 11D 22L from 53 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.32 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 10W 4D 12L from 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.51 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 18W 16D 19L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 20W 11D 22L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.58 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 54%, Mlada Boleslav 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hradec Králové) and 62% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Hradec Králové's games and 62% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Hradec Králové's matches and 62% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Hradec Králové 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Hradec Králové 0-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.41 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.44 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 35% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 37%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 55%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.32 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.