Teplice 2-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Teplice, 1.50 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Sigma Olomouc 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 62% | Sigma Olomouc 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.18 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.003 / defence 1.000 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.930 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.408. Sigma Olomouc's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Teplice games / 43 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 30% | Draw 33% | Sigma Olomouc 36%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Sigma Olomouc 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 40% | Sigma Olomouc 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 30% | Draw 33% | Sigma Olomouc 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Teplice 1.18 / Sigma Olomouc 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.003 / def 1.000 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.930 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Sigma Olomouc xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice 2 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 30% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Teplice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (2 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Teplice's attack rating (1.00) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.93x) against Teplice's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
30%
3.30
33%
2.99
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.49
1.31
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Teplice and 1.31 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice's recent record stands at 12W 10D 25L from 47 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 17L across 47 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Teplice against 1.32 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 7W 5D 12L from 24 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.34 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 games (0.98 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 14D 17L in their last 47 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.08 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 46%, Sigma Olomouc 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Teplice) and 42% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 42% of games; Sigma Olomouc in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Teplice's recent matches and 38% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Teplice's recent games and 42% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.18 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.31 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.93 / defence 0.74, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 30% | Draw 33% | Sigma Olomouc 36%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 62%, Sigma Olomouc 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.98 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.