Bohemians 1905 1-4 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Slavia Praha are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Slavia Praha in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bohemians 1905 0W, Slavia Praha 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Slavia Praha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 60% versus Slavia Praha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 56% | Slavia Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.39 xG and Slavia Praha 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.887 / defence 1.090 | Slavia Praha attack 0.959 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.408. Data: 43 Bohemians 1905 games / 43 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 31% | Slavia Praha 36%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Slavia Praha 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 60% | Slavia Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 31% | Slavia Praha 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.39 / Slavia Praha 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.887 / def 1.090 | Slavia Praha attack 0.959 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Slavia Praha xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 4 Slavia Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 33% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (0.96x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
33%
3.04
31%
3.25
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.87
1.47
Slavia Praha xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.47 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 15W 13D 20L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha's form line: 33W 7D 8L from 48 games, 2.21 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 11W 6D 6L from 23 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.50 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 13D 20L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 33W 7D 8L in their last 48 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.22 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Slavia Praha have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Bohemians 1905
0
Draws
10
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Slavia Praha 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 61%, Slavia Praha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bohemians 1905) and 52% (Slavia Praha).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Bohemians 1905's games and 52% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 52% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 1-4 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.39 xG and Slavia Praha 1.47 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Slavia Praha attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 31% | Slavia Praha 36%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 56%, Slavia Praha 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.