Zlin 0-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Plzen meet at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Letná, Zlin have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plzen (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plzen are 1.70 PPG clear of Zlin in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Zlin, 2 for Plzen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Zlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Plzen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 62% versus Plzen 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 60% | Plzen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.01 xG and Plzen 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.879 / defence 1.064 | Plzen attack 1.180 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.394. Plzen's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Zlin games / 42 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 19% | Draw 29% | Plzen 52%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Plzen 1.92. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 19% | Draw 29% | Plzen 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Zlin 1.01 / Plzen 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.879 / def 1.064 | Plzen attack 1.180 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Plzen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Plzen xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Plzen kick off?
Zlin vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Plzen?
Zlin 0 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Zlin vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Plzen part of?
Zlin vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 19% chance of winning, Plzen a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Zlin and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Plzen?
Record (2 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Zlin and Plzen in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zlin's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Plzen's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.18x) against Zlin's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
19%
5.27
29%
3.45
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.76
1.75
Plzen xG
5.27
19%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
3%
30.35
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Zlin and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Zlin and 1.75 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 15D 21L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 36W 9D 2L from 47 games, 2.49 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 14W 7D 2L from 23 away games — 2.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.89 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plzen in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Plzen in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 11W 15D 21L in their last 47 games (1.02 PPG), while Plzen have gone 36W 9D 2L in their last 47 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.39 PPG; Plzen away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Zlin or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Plzen in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Zlin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 1-7 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Zlin
0
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Plzen?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 2, Plzen have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Zlin 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 65%, Plzen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Zlin) and 35% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Plzen in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Zlin's recent matches and 44% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Zlin's recent games and 35% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Plzen tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Plzen in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Zlin 0-3 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.01 xG and Plzen 1.75 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Zlin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Plzen outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Plzen attack 1.18 / defence 0.71, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 19% | Draw 29% | Plzen 52%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 60%, Plzen 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.