FK Jablonec 0-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FK Jablonec have collected 1.12 PPG across 8 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.12 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 1W 2D 5L across 8 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.62 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.62 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. FK Jablonec's 1.12 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Slovan Liberec's 0.62 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 38% versus Slovan Liberec 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FK Jablonec 38% | Slovan Liberec 38%). Note also that Slovan Liberec surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while FK Jablonec recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.27 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.816 / defence 0.990 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.818 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.310. Data: 8 FK Jablonec games / 8 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 31%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Slovan Liberec 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 50% | Slovan Liberec 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG FK Jablonec 1.27 / Slovan Liberec 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.816 / def 0.990 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.818 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Slovan Liberec xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
FK Jablonec 0 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 41% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 0.82x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.82x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.58
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.33
1.06
Slovan Liberec xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.06 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 3D 3L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 0.62 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slovan Liberec away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.67 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 0-5 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
5
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FK Jablonec, 67% for Slovan Liberec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for FK Jablonec and 33% for Slovan Liberec.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FK Jablonec's games and 67% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 33% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovan Liberec defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat FK Jablonec 0-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.27 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.06 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 28% | Slovan Liberec 31%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Slovan Liberec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 38%, Slovan Liberec 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Slovan Liberec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.