Sparta Praha 4-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to epet ARENA to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Praha's home record at epet ARENA: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at epet ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Sparta Praha against 2.00 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Sparta Praha are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 4 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 57% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 60% | Teplice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.66 xG and Teplice 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.334 / defence 0.959 | Teplice attack 0.955 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.380. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Sparta Praha games / 33 Teplice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 47% | Draw 24% | Teplice 29%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Teplice 3.45. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 60% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 47% | Draw 24% | Teplice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Sparta Praha 1.66 / Teplice 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.334 / def 0.959 | Teplice attack 0.955 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Teplice xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Sparta Praha 4 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Teplice part of?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 47% chance of winning, Teplice a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sparta Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Record (9 meetings): Sparta Praha 5W | Draws 4 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sparta Praha's attack rating (1.33) and Teplice's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.95x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
47%
2.15
24%
4.14
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.92
1.26
Teplice xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
6%
17.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.26 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 23W 7D 7L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 12W 13D 12L from 37 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.39 PPG from 18 outings (13W 4D 1L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 5W 8D 5L from 18 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.30 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Teplice in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 23W 7D 7L in their last 37 games (2.05 PPG), while Teplice have gone 12W 13D 12L in their last 37 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Teplice away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.39 PPG; Teplice away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Teplice in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
4
Draws
0
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 6, Teplice have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Sparta Praha 4-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 72%, Teplice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sparta Praha) and 44% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 33%; Teplice in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Sparta Praha's games and 56% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sparta Praha's matches and 44% of Teplice's.
Do Sparta Praha and Teplice tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Teplice in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Teplice 4-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.66 xG and Teplice 1.26 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.33 / defence 0.96 against Teplice attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 47% | Draw 24% | Teplice 29%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 60%, Teplice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.