Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Teplice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Teplice have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Mlada Boleslav's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mlada Boleslav's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Teplice against 1.70 for Mlada Boleslav. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 10 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Teplice, 5 for Mlada Boleslav and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2026, ended Teplice 0–1 Mlada Boleslav — a Mlada Boleslav win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Mlada Boleslav 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 43% | Mlada Boleslav 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.25 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.886 / defence 1.204 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.776 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.292. Mlada Boleslav's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Teplice's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mlada Boleslav's projected output up. Data: built from Teplice's last 44 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 44.
Result probabilities: Teplice 35% | Draw 33% | Mlada Boleslav 33%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.89 | Draw 3.05 | Mlada Boleslav 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Teplice 50% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 35% | Draw 33% | Mlada Boleslav 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Teplice 1.25 / Mlada Boleslav 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.886 / def 1.204 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.776 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Teplice (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Mlada Boleslav xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Where is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 35% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Teplice and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.78x) against Teplice's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 44 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
35%
2.89
33%
3.05
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.45
1.21
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Teplice and 1.21 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 15D 18L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.33 PPG from 49 outings (16W 17D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Teplice against 1.33 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 8W 7D 10L across their last 25 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 25 away games (6W 10D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.45 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 16W 15D 18L in their last 49 games (1.29 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 16W 17D 16L in their last 49 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Teplice's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.24 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Teplice or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 44%, Mlada Boleslav 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Teplice) and 56% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 32% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Teplice's recent matches and 52% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Teplice's recent games and 56% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Teplice's recent matches and 76% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.