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Poisson model rates Teplice at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Teplice and Bohemians 1905 meet at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Teplice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bohemians 1905 haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Teplice 4W, Bohemians 1905 3W, 3D.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

League Table

Bohemians 1905 hold the table advantage, sitting 3rd with 0 points — 10 positions and 0 points clear of Teplice in 13th.

At home this season, Teplice have gone 0W 0D 0L. On the road, Bohemians 1905's record stands at 0W 0D 0L this term. Teplice: Chance Liga (Relegation Group). Bohemians 1905: Promotion - Chance Liga (Championship Group).

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 53% versus Bohemians 1905 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Teplice 38% | Bohemians 1905 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.16 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.855 / defence 0.964 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.942 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Teplice games / 30 Bohemians 1905 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Teplice 37% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 33%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 1905 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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