Zlin 0-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Baník Ostrava meet at Stadion Letna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zlin haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letna: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letna than their overall form suggests.
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Baník Ostrava haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, Baník Ostrava have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Zlin's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Zlin — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 54% versus Baník Ostrava 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 54% | Baník Ostrava 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.63 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.039 / defence 1.128 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.929 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Zlin games / 30 Baník Ostrava games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Zlin 45% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 29%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Baník Ostrava 3.45. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 50% | Baník Ostrava 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 45% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Zlin 1.63 / Baník Ostrava 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.039 / def 1.128 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.929 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Zlin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Baník Ostrava xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Zlin 0 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 45% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Zlin and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
Record (9 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 3 | Baník Ostrava 5W.
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Zlin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zlin's attack rating (1.04) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (0.93x) against Zlin's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.89
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.89
1.26
Baník Ostrava xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Zlin and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Zlin and 1.26 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 11W 8D 16L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. Zlin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 9W 7D 19L from 35 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. Baník Ostrava haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Zlin against 0.97 for Baník Ostrava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 4D 10L from 17 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zlin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.11 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Pre-Season
Baník Ostrava
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 11W 8D 16L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 9W 7D 19L in their last 35 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Zlin's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.41 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 5-1 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Zlin 0-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 59%, Baník Ostrava 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Zlin) and 41% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Zlin's recent matches and 41% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Zlin's matches and 41% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Zlin and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baník Ostrava defy the odds to beat Zlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Zlin 0-1 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.63 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.26 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zlin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.04 / defence 1.13 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 45% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 29%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 54%, Baník Ostrava 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.17 PPG, Baník Ostrava 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.