Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Lokotrans Arena to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Teplice have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Teplice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Mlada Boleslav, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Teplice — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Mlada Boleslav a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Teplice — key trading statistics (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Teplice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 61% | Teplice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.50 xG and Teplice 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.057 / defence 0.995 | Teplice attack 0.978 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Data: 60 Mlada Boleslav games / 60 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 28% | Teplice 29%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 70% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 5 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 28% | Teplice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.50 / Teplice 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.057 / def 0.995 | Teplice attack 0.978 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Teplice xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice is a Relegation Group - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 44% chance of winning, Teplice a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Record (9 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 5W | Draws 2 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Teplice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.06) and Teplice's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.98x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.63
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.66
1.17
Teplice xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.17 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 69 games, going 20W 21D 28L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.20 PPG from 69 outings (21W 20D 28L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.20 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 8W 12D 13L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.97 points per game from 33 outings (6W 14D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.14 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 20W 21D 28L in their last 69 games (1.17 PPG), while Teplice have gone 21W 20D 28L in their last 69 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Teplice away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.09 PPG; Teplice away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Teplice in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Teplice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 61%, Teplice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Mlada Boleslav) and 42% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Teplice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 58% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 42% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Teplice tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Teplice in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Mlada Boleslav 0-2 at Lokotrans Arena, Relegation Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.50 xG and Teplice 1.17 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Teplice outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Teplice attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 28% | Teplice 29%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 61%, Teplice 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.17 PPG, Teplice 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.