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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice encounter.

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Analysis

Teplice make the trip to Lokotrans Arena to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Teplice have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Teplice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Mlada Boleslav, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Teplice — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Mlada Boleslav a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (69 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Teplice — key trading statistics (69 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Teplice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 61% | Teplice 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.50 xG and Teplice 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.057 / defence 0.995 | Teplice attack 0.978 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Data: 60 Mlada Boleslav games / 60 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 28% | Teplice 29%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 70% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.

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