Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 meet at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andruv stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bohemians 1905's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.60 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 57% versus Bohemians 1905 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 58% | Bohemians 1905 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.030 / defence 1.058 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.871 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: 60 Sigma Olomouc games / 60 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 30%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Bohemians 1905 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Semi-finals | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.34 / Bohemians 1905 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.030 / def 1.058 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.871 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Bohemians 1905 xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 is a Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 41% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 4W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.03) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.87x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
41%
2.44
29%
3.42
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.44
1.11
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.11 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 65 games, going 24W 16D 25L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.17 PPG from 65 outings (20W 16D 29L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.17 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 15W 6D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.16 points per game from 32 outings (10W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.98 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 24W 16D 25L in their last 65 games (1.35 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 20W 16D 29L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.59 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 56%, Bohemians 1905 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Sigma Olomouc) and 38% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 38% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 38% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andruv stadion, Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.11 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 58%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.