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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 meet at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Sigma Olomouc (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andruv stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion.

Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Bohemians 1905's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.60 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).

Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 57% versus Bohemians 1905 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 58% | Bohemians 1905 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.030 / defence 1.058 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.871 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: 60 Sigma Olomouc games / 60 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 30%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Bohemians 1905 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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