Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 42%, yet the head-to-head data favours Baník Ostrava — this Teplice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga (Relegation Group - 2). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Teplice — last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Teplice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Baník Ostrava have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Baník Ostrava away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 0.60 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Baník Ostrava have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Teplice.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Teplice 1–0 Baník Ostrava — a Teplice win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 6 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Baník Ostrava 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 42% | Baník Ostrava 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.23 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.705 / defence 0.921 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.834 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Teplice's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Baník Ostrava's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Data: built from Teplice's last 60 games and Baník Ostrava's last 60.
Result probabilities: Teplice 42% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 27%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.38 | Draw 3.21 | Baník Ostrava 3.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Teplice's last 10 home games and Baník Ostrava's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 40% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 2 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 42% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Teplice 1.23 / Baník Ostrava 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.705 / def 0.921 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.834 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Teplice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Baník Ostrava xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Teplice 2 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (Relegation Group - 2) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 42% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Teplice and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Teplice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.70x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 60 games and Baník Ostrava's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.21
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.15
0.92
Baník Ostrava xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
8%
12.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Teplice and 0.92 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 20D 28L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 27W 13D 26L from 66 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.12 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 32 home games (12W 6D 14L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 10W 8D 14L from their last 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.26 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Teplice (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 20D 28L in their last 66 games (1.12 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 27W 13D 26L in their last 66 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Teplice's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.31 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Teplice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Teplice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won Teplice 0-5 Baník Ostrava.
Teplice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Teplice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 44%, Baník Ostrava 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Teplice) and 41% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Baník Ostrava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Teplice's recent matches and 44% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Teplice's recent games and 41% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Teplice's recent matches and 69% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Baník Ostrava 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Baník Ostrava 2-1 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Relegation Group - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.23 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.92 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.70 / defence 0.92 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.83 / defence 1.26, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 42% | Draw 31% | Baník Ostrava 27%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 42%, Baník Ostrava 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.12 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.