Teplice 1-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 0.90 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Baník Ostrava have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against Teplice's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 54% versus Baník Ostrava 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 48% | Baník Ostrava 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.13 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.932 / defence 1.009 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.682 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.243. Data: 45 Teplice games / 45 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 39% | Draw 36% | Baník Ostrava 25%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.56 | Draw 2.78 | Baník Ostrava 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Baník Ostrava 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 39% | Draw 36% | Baník Ostrava 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Teplice 1.13 / Baník Ostrava 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.932 / def 1.009 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.682 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Teplice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Baník Ostrava xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Teplice 1 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 39% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Teplice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (8 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 6W.
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in?
Teplice (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.93x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
39%
2.57
36%
2.75
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Teplice xG
Total xG
1.98
0.85
Baník Ostrava xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Teplice and 0.85 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 14W 14D 22L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 24W 9D 17L from 50 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (10W 4D 11L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 10W 6D 9L from 25 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.32 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 14W 14D 22L in their last 50 games (1.12 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 24W 9D 17L in their last 50 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.36 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Teplice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Teplice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Teplice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 52%, Baník Ostrava 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Teplice) and 40% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Baník Ostrava in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Teplice's recent matches and 44% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Teplice's recent games and 40% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Baník Ostrava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.13 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.85 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.68 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 39% | Draw 36% | Baník Ostrava 25%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 48%, Baník Ostrava 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Teplice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.