Baník Ostrava 3-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Baník Ostrava take on Dukla Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha meet at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Baník Ostrava (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 2W 2D 6L at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Dukla Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Baník Ostrava, 0 for Dukla Praha and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dukla Praha — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 43% versus Dukla Praha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 41% | Dukla Praha 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 0.89 xG and Dukla Praha 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.705 / defence 0.994 | Dukla Praha attack 0.712 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.289. Baník Ostrava's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Baník Ostrava games / 46 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 37% | Dukla Praha 32%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Dukla Praha 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 40% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 37% | Dukla Praha 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Baník Ostrava 0.89 / Dukla Praha 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.705 / def 0.994 | Dukla Praha attack 0.712 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Dukla Praha xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha?
Baník Ostrava 3 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 31% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Baník Ostrava 2W | Draws 1 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (0.70) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dukla Praha's attack (0.71x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.25
37%
2.69
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
1.80
0.91
Dukla Praha xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 15.1 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.91 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 51 games, going 24W 9D 18L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dukla Praha sit at 0.90 PPG from 51 outings (9W 19D 23L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 14W 3D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Dukla Praha have taken 0.80 points per game from 25 outings (3W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.88 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 24W 9D 18L in their last 51 games (1.59 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 9W 19D 23L in their last 51 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Dukla Praha away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.80 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha?
From 5 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-3 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 44%, Dukla Praha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Baník Ostrava) and 40% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 32%; Dukla Praha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 48% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 40% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Dukla Praha 3-1 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 0.89 xG and Dukla Praha 0.91 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.70 / defence 0.99 against Dukla Praha attack 0.71 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 37% | Dukla Praha 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 41%, Dukla Praha 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.