Bohemians 1905 0-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dolicek plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Teplice (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Bohemians 1905 3W, Teplice 2W, 3D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 46% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 46% | Teplice 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG and Teplice 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.766 / defence 0.959 | Teplice attack 0.965 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.286. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Bohemians 1905 games / 46 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 33% | Teplice 37%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Teplice 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 33% | Teplice 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.04 / Teplice 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.766 / def 0.959 | Teplice attack 0.965 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Teplice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Teplice xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance of winning, Teplice a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
Record (8 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 3 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.96x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
30%
3.33
33%
3.06
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.23
1.19
Teplice xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.19 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 15W 14D 21L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 15W 14D 21L from 50 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.18 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.08 PPG from 24 outings (6W 8D 10L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 4W 10D 10L from 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.16 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 14D 21L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Teplice have gone 15W 14D 21L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Teplice away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.08 PPG; Teplice away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Teplice in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Teplice go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 50%, Teplice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 46% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 33% of games; Teplice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 58% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 46% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Teplice tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Teplice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Bohemians 1905 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Bohemians 1905 0-1 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG and Teplice 1.19 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.77 / defence 0.96 against Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 33% | Teplice 37%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 46%, Teplice 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG, Teplice 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.