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Poisson model favours Sigma Olomouc (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dukla Praha face Sigma Olomouc.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Dukla Praha welcome Sigma Olomouc to Stadion Juliska. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Dukla Praha — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Dukla Praha have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Juliska — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sigma Olomouc's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sigma Olomouc — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dukla Praha, 2 for Sigma Olomouc and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (50 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (50 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 50% versus Sigma Olomouc 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 38% | Sigma Olomouc 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.87 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.764 / defence 1.018 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.016 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.243. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Dukla Praha games / 45 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 22% | Draw 34% | Sigma Olomouc 43%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Sigma Olomouc 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 50% | Sigma Olomouc 40% BTTS from recent games.

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