Sparta Praha 3-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Sparta Praha take on Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc meet at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 0.93 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 1.009. Data: 0 Sparta Praha games / 0 Sigma Olomouc games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 30% | Draw 37% | Sigma Olomouc 33%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Sigma Olomouc 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 30% | Draw 37% | Sigma Olomouc 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Sparta Praha 0.93 / Sigma Olomouc 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.953 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sigma Olomouc xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Sparta Praha 3 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 30% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.85x) against Sparta Praha's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.32
37%
2.71
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
1.92
0.99
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.32
30%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.5 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.99 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Pre-Season
Sigma Olomouc
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-4 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
2
Draws
1
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 7, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Sigma Olomouc 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Sparta Praha defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 3-2 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 0.93 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.99 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 30% | Draw 37% | Sigma Olomouc 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sparta Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.