Sigma Olomouc 3-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pardubice at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 July 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Sigma Olomouc register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Pardubice in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 0.99 xG and Pardubice 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | Pardubice attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 1.214. Data: 1 Sigma Olomouc games / 1 Pardubice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 31% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 40%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Pardubice 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.2 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 37% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form. Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 4.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty. The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 31% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Sigma Olomouc 0.99 / Pardubice 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | Pardubice attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.880 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Pardubice xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Sigma Olomouc 3 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 31% chance of winning, Pardubice a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Pardubice (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (0.98) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.85x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
31%
3.28
29%
3.44
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.18
1.19
Pardubice xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.19 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pardubice are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sigma Olomouc.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Pardubice in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 1-5 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Pardubice 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 100% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 100% of Pardubice's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Pardubice tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat Pardubice 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Pardubice 3-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.99 xG and Pardubice 1.19 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Pardubice attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 31% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 40%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 100%, Pardubice 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pardubice arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sigma Olomouc scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.