Slovan Liberec 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Slovácko at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec host Slovácko at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 July 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.21 xG and Slovácko 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Slovácko attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.263. Data: 0 Slovan Liberec games / 0 Slovácko games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 34% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 36%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Slovácko 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 34% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.21 / Slovácko 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Slovácko attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Slovácko xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 34% chance of winning, Slovácko a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Slovácko in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.85x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.36
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.44
1.24
Slovácko xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.24 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Pre-Season
Slovácko
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovan Liberec go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Slovan Liberec won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Slovan Liberec
1
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 6, Slovácko have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Slovan Liberec 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Slovácko?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Slovan Liberec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Slovan Liberec 0-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.21 xG and Slovácko 1.24 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Slovácko attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 34% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 36%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.