České Budějovice 1-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 25 July 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.21 xG and Teplice 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Teplice attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.263. Data: 0 České Budějovice games / 0 Teplice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 34% | Draw 30% | Teplice 36%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Teplice 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 34% | Draw 30% | Teplice 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG České Budějovice 1.21 / Teplice 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Teplice attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Teplice (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Teplice xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Teplice kick off?
České Budějovice vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Teplice?
České Budějovice 1 - 0 Teplice.
Where is České Budějovice vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Teplice part of?
České Budějovice vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 34% chance of winning, Teplice a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both České Budějovice and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are České Budějovice and Teplice in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.85) and Teplice's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.85x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.36
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.44
1.24
Teplice xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.24 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Pre-Season
Teplice
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
České Budějovice
2
Draws
5
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Teplice?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 2, Teplice have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when České Budějovice 0-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as České Budějovice defy the odds to beat Teplice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Teplice 1-0 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.21 xG and Teplice 1.24 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Teplice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Teplice attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 34% | Draw 30% | Teplice 36%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual České Budějovice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.