Plzen 6-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Pardubice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Plzen welcome Pardubice to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Plzen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
Plzen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Pardubice, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Plzen a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Plzen trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Pardubice trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 62% versus Pardubice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 64% | Pardubice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.91 xG and Pardubice 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.093 / defence 0.868 | Pardubice attack 0.919 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.207. Data: 37 Plzen games / 38 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 60% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 19%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Pardubice 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | Pardubice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 60% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Plzen 1.91 / Pardubice 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.093 / def 0.868 | Pardubice attack 0.919 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Plzen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Pardubice xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Pardubice kick off?
Plzen vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Plzen 6 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Plzen vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Pardubice part of?
Plzen vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 60% chance of winning, Pardubice a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Plzen and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Pardubice?
Record (4 meetings): Plzen 3W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Plzen and Pardubice in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.09) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.56
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.87
0.96
Pardubice xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
3%
36.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Plzen and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Plzen and 0.96 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 23W 8D 11L from 42 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 23L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 12W 4D 5L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 6W 2D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.00 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 23W 8D 11L in their last 42 games (1.83 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 13W 6D 23L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Pardubice away?
Plzen's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.90 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
2
Draws
1
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Pardubice have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Plzen 0-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Pardubice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 62%, Pardubice 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Plzen) and 52% (Pardubice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Plzen's recent matches and 48% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plzen's matches and 52% of Pardubice's.
Do Plzen and Pardubice tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Pardubice 6-2 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.91 xG and Pardubice 0.96 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against Pardubice attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 60% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 19%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 64%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.