Slovácko 0-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Slovácko take on Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to take on Slovácko. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Slovácko have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Slovácko) versus 1.80 (Sigma Olomouc). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Slovácko, 0 for Sigma Olomouc and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Slovácko winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 57% versus Sigma Olomouc 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 65% | Sigma Olomouc 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.21 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.828 / defence 0.903 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.053 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.281. Data: 47 Slovácko games / 47 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 33% | Draw 34% | Sigma Olomouc 33%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Sigma Olomouc 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 50% | Sigma Olomouc 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 33% | Draw 34% | Sigma Olomouc 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Slovácko 1.21 / Sigma Olomouc 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.828 / def 0.903 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.053 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sigma Olomouc xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Slovácko 0 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 33% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (2 meetings): Slovácko 2W | Draws 0 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc in?
Slovácko (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.83) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.05
34%
2.94
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.43
1.22
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.05
33%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.22 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovácko's recent record stands at 27W 9D 15L from 51 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 18L across 51 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovácko by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sigma Olomouc heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 18W 2D 5L from 25 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 8W 6D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 27W 9D 15L in their last 51 games (1.76 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 15D 18L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Slovácko's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.24 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sigma Olomouc have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Slovácko's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovácko
4
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 44%, Sigma Olomouc 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Slovácko) and 44% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Slovácko's recent matches and 40% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Slovácko's recent games and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovácko's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 18, as Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.21 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.22 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.83 / defence 0.90 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.05 / defence 0.89, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 33% | Draw 34% | Sigma Olomouc 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 65%, Sigma Olomouc 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.