Slovan Liberec 0-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec host Slovácko at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec at Stadion u Nisy this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Slovácko — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slovácko are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 2 for Slovácko and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 46% versus Slovácko 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 40% | Slovácko 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.52 xG and Slovácko 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.885 / defence 0.824 | Slovácko attack 0.964 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.378. Data: 48 Slovan Liberec games / 48 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 43% | Draw 33% | Slovácko 24%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Slovácko 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slovácko (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 50% | Slovácko 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 43% | Draw 33% | Slovácko 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.52 / Slovácko 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.885 / def 0.824 | Slovácko attack 0.964 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Slovácko xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 43% chance of winning, Slovácko a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Slovácko?
Record (3 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 0 | Slovácko 2W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Slovácko in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Slovácko (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 0.89x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
43%
2.30
33%
3.04
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.62
1.09
Slovácko xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
5%
19.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.09 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 50 games, going 17W 11D 22L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.76 PPG from 50 outings (26W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 10W 5D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.38 points per game from 24 outings (9W 6D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.54 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 17W 11D 22L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 26W 10D 14L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Slovácko away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.46 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Slovácko in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovan Liberec go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Slovan Liberec won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Slovan Liberec
1
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 6, Slovácko have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Slovan Liberec 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Slovácko?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 38%, Slovácko 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Slovan Liberec) and 79% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 67% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 79% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Slovácko tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovácko defy the odds to beat Slovan Liberec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Slovan Liberec 0-1 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.52 xG and Slovácko 1.09 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.89 / defence 0.82 against Slovácko attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 43% | Draw 33% | Slovácko 24%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Slovácko win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 40%, Slovácko 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.