Hradec Králové 0-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.30 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 56% versus Bohemians 1905 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 54% | Bohemians 1905 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.62 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.912 / defence 0.978 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.155 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.344. Data: 47 Hradec Králové games / 47 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 37% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 33%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 1905 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 37% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG Hradec Králové 1.62 / Bohemians 1905 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.912 / def 0.978 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.155 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Bohemians 1905 xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové 0 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 37% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.91x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.33
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.14
1.52
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
6%
15.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.52 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 18W 16D 18L from 52 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 22L across 52 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.35 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 11W 9D 6L from 26 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 8W 6D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.44 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 18W 16D 18L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 13D 22L in their last 52 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.62 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 58%, Bohemians 1905 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hradec Králové) and 62% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hradec Králové's games and 62% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Hradec Králové's matches and 62% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Hradec Králové 0-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.62 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.52 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 37% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 33%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 54%, Bohemians 1905 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.35 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.