Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 45%, yet in-form Slavia Praha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slavia Praha make the trip to Lokotrans Aréna to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 September 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Slavia Praha are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Slavia Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 0–4 with Slavia Praha winning.
It is worth noting that Slavia Praha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Slavia Praha half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Slavia Praha 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 66% | Slavia Praha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.34 xG and Slavia Praha 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.303 / defence 0.892 | Slavia Praha attack 1.019 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.032. Mlada Boleslav carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Mlada Boleslav games / 36 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 45% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 26%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Slavia Praha 3.85. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slavia Praha (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Slavia Praha 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Sep 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 45% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.34 / Slavia Praha 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.303 / def 0.892 | Slavia Praha attack 1.019 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Slavia Praha xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:30 on Tuesday 17 September 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 2 Slavia Praha.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 45% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha?
Record (6 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 0W | Draws 1 | Slavia Praha 5W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.30x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.02x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.45
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.28
0.94
Slavia Praha xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.94 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 16W 8D 17L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha's form line: 31W 8D 2L from 41 games, 2.46 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mlada Boleslav.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (10W 2D 7L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 12W 6D 1L from 19 away games — 2.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.12 scored and 0.61 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 16W 8D 17L in their last 41 games (1.37 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 31W 8D 2L in their last 41 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.68 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 4-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Mlada Boleslav
1
Draws
9
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Slavia Praha 4-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 63%, Slavia Praha 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Mlada Boleslav and 42% for Slavia Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 47%; Slavia Praha in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 47% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 42% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 0-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.34 xG and Slavia Praha 0.94 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.30 / defence 0.89 against Slavia Praha attack 1.02 / defence 0.74, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 45% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 26%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Slavia Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 66%, Slavia Praha 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.