Sigma Olomouc 4-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 2W 1D 1L across 4 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.75 PPG. Last five: L W D W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Sigma Olomouc. A 0.75 PPG lead over FK Jablonec (1.75 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 100% and FK Jablonec 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sigma Olomouc 100% | FK Jablonec 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 2.01 xG and FK Jablonec 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.270 / defence 1.485 | FK Jablonec attack 0.587 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.160. Sigma Olomouc carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Sigma Olomouc games / 5 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 61% | Draw 21% | FK Jablonec 18%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | FK Jablonec 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 100% | FK Jablonec 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 61% | Draw 21% | FK Jablonec 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Sigma Olomouc 2.01 / FK Jablonec 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.270 / def 1.485 | FK Jablonec attack 0.587 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.01
FK Jablonec xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Sigma Olomouc 4 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 61% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-W-D-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.59x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.74
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.02
1.01
FK Jablonec xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
13%
7.47
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
2%
40.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.01 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 2L across 4 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sigma Olomouc by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.75 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Sigma Olomouc, 50% for FK Jablonec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sigma Olomouc and 50% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 50% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 50% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat FK Jablonec 4-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 2.01 xG and FK Jablonec 1.01 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.27 / defence 1.49 against FK Jablonec attack 0.59 / defence 1.27, drawn from 4/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 61% | Draw 21% | FK Jablonec 18%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 100%, FK Jablonec 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Sigma Olomouc scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.