Baník Ostrava 1-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Baník Ostrava 1.80 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baník Ostrava register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Mlada Boleslav in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Baník Ostrava trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 60% and Mlada Boleslav 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baník Ostrava 80% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 2.03 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.402 / defence 1.069 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.830 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.232. Baník Ostrava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 5 Baník Ostrava games / 5 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 59% | Draw 21% | Mlada Boleslav 20%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Mlada Boleslav 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 60% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 59% | Draw 21% | Mlada Boleslav 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Baník Ostrava 2.03 / Mlada Boleslav 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.402 / def 1.069 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.830 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Mlada Boleslav xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 59% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.40x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.73
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.12
1.09
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
3%
38.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.09 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mlada Boleslav heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Mlada Boleslav in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
4
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 60%, Mlada Boleslav 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Baník Ostrava and 60% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Baník Ostrava's games and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Mlada Boleslav 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Mlada Boleslav 1-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 2.03 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.09 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.40 / defence 1.07 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 59% | Draw 21% | Mlada Boleslav 20%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 80%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.