FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Karviná meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games (0.83 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 1W 2D 0L at Stadion Střelnice — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.83 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Karviná (all games): 0W 3D 3L across 6 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.83 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Karviná — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 33% versus Karviná 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 50% | Karviná 50%). Note also that Karviná surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while FK Jablonec recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.40 xG and Karviná 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.886 / defence 1.088 | Karviná attack 0.705 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.258. Data: 6 FK Jablonec games / 6 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 27% | Karviná 26%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Karviná 3.85. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 67% | Karviná 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 27% | Karviná 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG FK Jablonec 1.40 / Karviná 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.886 / def 1.088 | Karviná attack 0.705 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Karviná xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Karviná kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
FK Jablonec 1 - 0 Karviná.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Karviná part of?
FK Jablonec vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 47% chance of winning, Karviná a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FK Jablonec and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Karviná (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.17 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.89) and Karviná's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.70x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.69
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.36
0.96
Karviná xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.96 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.50 PPG from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for FK Jablonec against 0.50 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.33 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Karviná
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Karviná in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Karviná have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Karviná away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.67 PPG; Karviná away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Karviná have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Karviná?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 67%, Karviná 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for FK Jablonec and 33% for Karviná.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Karviná in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 33% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 33% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Karviná tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Karviná in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Karviná 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Karviná 1-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.40 xG and Karviná 0.96 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Karviná landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Karviná attack 0.70 / defence 1.19, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 27% | Karviná 26%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 50%, Karviná 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Karviná's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 0.83 PPG, Karviná 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.