Zlin 1-4 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 0D 2L from 4 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.67 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zlin at 1.50 PPG versus Sigma Olomouc's 1.33. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 67% and Sigma Olomouc 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zlin 100% | Sigma Olomouc 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.61 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.039 / defence 0.963 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.950 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.333. Sigma Olomouc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Zlin games / 3 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 46% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 29%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Sigma Olomouc 3.45. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 50% | Sigma Olomouc 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 46% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Zlin 1.61 / Sigma Olomouc 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.039 / def 0.963 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.950 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Zlin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sigma Olomouc xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Zlin 1 - 4 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 46% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Zlin and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.04x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.06
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.83
1.22
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
6%
17.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Zlin and 1.22 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Zlin have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Zlin are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sigma Olomouc.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 2.67 scored and 2.67 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Sigma Olomouc in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Zlin or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2025, when Zlin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Zlin
2
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 67%, Sigma Olomouc at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Zlin and 100% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zlin's games and 100% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Zlin's matches and 100% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Zlin and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Zlin 1-4 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.61 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.22 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.95 / defence 1.33, drawn from 4/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 46% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 29%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 100%, Sigma Olomouc 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zlin arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc scored 4 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.