Hradec Králové 2-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Zlin meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Zlin (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Zlin have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Hradec Králové, 1.10 for Zlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hradec Králové 1W, Zlin 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 3–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Zlin — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 54% versus Zlin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 42% | Zlin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.41 xG and Zlin 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.946 / defence 1.413 | Zlin attack 0.583 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.167. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Hradec Králové games / 24 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 27% | Zlin 26%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Zlin 3.85. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Zlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 27% | Zlin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Hradec Králové 1.41 / Zlin 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.946 / def 1.413 | Zlin attack 0.583 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Zlin xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Zlin kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Hradec Králové 2 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Zlin part of?
Hradec Králové vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 47% chance of winning, Zlin a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hradec Králové and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Zlin?
Record (1 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 0 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Zlin in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Zlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.95) and Zlin's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.58x) against Hradec Králové's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.71
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.38
0.96
Zlin xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.96 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 6W 10D 8L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 7W 4D 13L from 24 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Hradec Králové against 1.04 for Zlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 2D 7L from 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.12 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Zlin in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 6W 10D 8L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Zlin have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Zlin away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.55 PPG; Zlin away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zlin won 4-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hradec Králové 0-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Zlin?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Zlin see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 54%, Zlin 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hradec Králové) and 46% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Zlin in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 46% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 46% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Zlin tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Zlin in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Zlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Zlin 2-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.41 xG and Zlin 0.96 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 1.41 against Zlin attack 0.58 / defence 1.29, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 27% | Zlin 26%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 42%, Zlin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.17 PPG, Zlin 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.