FK Jablonec 1-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for FK Jablonec, 0.60 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 42% versus Pardubice 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 50% | Pardubice 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.57 xG and Pardubice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.805 / defence 1.095 | Pardubice attack 0.776 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.273. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 FK Jablonec games / 12 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 49% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 26%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 3.85. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 50% | Pardubice 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 49% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG FK Jablonec 1.57 / Pardubice 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.805 / def 1.095 | Pardubice attack 0.776 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Pardubice xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice part of?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 49% chance of winning, Pardubice a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FK Jablonec and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 0.81x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.78x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.98
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.66
1.08
Pardubice xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.08 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 2W 5D 5L from 12 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 7L across 12 games — 0.58 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for FK Jablonec against 0.58 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 0W 0D 5L across 5 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pardubice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.25 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Pardubice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.20 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FK Jablonec have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 3-0 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
3
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Pardubice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Pardubice 0-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for FK Jablonec, 80% for Pardubice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for FK Jablonec and 80% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FK Jablonec's games and 80% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of FK Jablonec's matches and 80% of Pardubice's.
Do FK Jablonec and Pardubice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Pardubice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 13, as FK Jablonec and Pardubice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.57 xG and Pardubice 1.08 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against Pardubice attack 0.78 / defence 1.47, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 49% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 26%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 50%, Pardubice 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 0.92 PPG, Pardubice 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.