Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Hradec Králové travel to Andruv stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Andruv stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Hradec Králové, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Sigma Olomouc.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
It is worth noting that Hradec Králové have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 52% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 58% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.50 xG and Hradec Králové 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.191 / defence 1.007 | Hradec Králové attack 0.656 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Data: 36 Sigma Olomouc games / 35 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 51% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 23%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Hradec Králové 4.35. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Hradec Králové lead the H2H ledger, but Sigma Olomouc carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Hradec Králové 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 51% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.50 / Hradec Králové 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.191 / def 1.007 | Hradec Králové attack 0.656 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Hradec Králové xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Andruv stadion.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 51% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Record (10 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 5W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.19x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.83
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.40
0.90
Hradec Králové xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
5%
19.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.90 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 18W 8D 14L from 40 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 13L across 40 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.55 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 11W 5D 4L from 20 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.35 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 8D 14L in their last 40 games (1.55 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 18W 9D 13L in their last 40 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.90 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 40%, Hradec Králové 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sigma Olomouc) and 40% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 50% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 40% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.